South Beach Condos Blog

Oh, the media.  I remember in back as early as 2004 the media starting predicting that the bottom would be falling out just about now.  Dire predictions.  Horrible repercussions.  Doom and more gloom.

I’ve never been an optimist.  Why?  Because I’m a businessman.  I was always a realist.  I told another colleague as early back as 2003 that it was “over.”  She laughed, and laughed hard!  She went on to say, “this is South Beach.  Other areas my decline but NEVER South Beach.  Everyone in the world wants South Beach real estate!”  I winked at her and said, “It’s over.”

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This one takes the cake.  Buyers of units at Trump Towers I, II, and III in Sunny Isles Beach, Fla are suing the developers, the Related Group and Dezer Development because, according to the Daily Business Review

…used the celebrated Trump name to attract buyers. But according to the suit, the billionaire’s name can only be used temporarily and for promotional purposes and may be changed once the units are sold out, the buildings are completed and the developers are no longer associated with the project. The lawsuit was filed Tuesday in Miami-Dade Circuit Court.

The buyers are seeking cancellation of sales contracts for units with prices totaling more than $100 million and the return of about $20 million in deposits.

Trump who was reached in Scotland…said he was “honored” by the lawsuit and the fight over his name.

Honored?  Read the rest of the story and you’ll want to do a little bit more to Trump other than “honoring” him.

Sorry for the lack of posts recently,  but the reality is that I am a real estate agent first, and a blogger second

Anyway, I don’t know how this little nugget (h/t to Chelsea Handler) slipped by me (probably because May 6th was MY birthday).  WSJ had an interesting article prophesizing that we are somewhere near the bottom of the real estate crisis, and one sentence, in particular, jumped out at me:

Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old.

Not me.

The article is a very good read and adds balance to all the over-simplified analysis that has come our way over the YEARS.

Yet another article “predicting” the crappy future of South Florida real estate comes to us via tomorrow’s New Times. Bob Norman interviewed Jack McCabe, industry analyst, and here are his predictions for 2008:

• Home prices will fall by at least another 15 percent.
• Individual foreclosures will increase 300 percent from last year, when they already soared.
• About half of all new condo buyers will walk away from projects by the time they reach completion.
• Bankruptcies by developers and lenders will proliferate to the point that they become common.
• Many lenders, appraisers, and brokers will be indicted for mortgage fraud.
• A recession will be declared by the third quarter of the year.
• Government efforts at bailouts and interest rate cuts will be like putting a “Band-Aid on skin cancer” and only ensure ’70s-style stagflation.

To the writer, all of the above seems “reasonable.” As I’ve mentioned before, we still have a while to go before things get better stabilize. There is no doubt that the market, in general, will worsen before it gets better, BUT, only in some areas. For example, luxury properties in South Beach have NEVER gone down, AND in the condominiums that I specialize in, only a HANDFUL, maybe six in total, have been foreclosures.

Interesting perspective on the South Florida real estate “meltdown” (see video above): Could it be that the pain of the deflating real estate market will primarily be spread out among many broad shoulders? I think that the Related Group, WCI, Bank of America, and Countrywide losing a couple hundred billion dollars will go a long way in creating “soft landing” for the rough times ahead.

Here are a couple of doosies “weaved” flawlessly into this article:

McCabe has made his name on such dire predictions, and I should note that he stands to profit if he’s right.

The Deerfield Beach-based consultant is now working full-time advising hedge funds and other vulture outfits that await some bottom-feeding deals.

McCabe says he’s seen only two such deals so far, both involving townhouses on the west coast of Florida.

It’s easy to get carried away with a doomsday scenario.

“…two such deals…”. TWO!

For the record, I’M a realist.