Fun with Graphs (Lots and Lots of Them)

After punching up all these graphs, I was a little surprised to see where we’ve been in relationship to where we are now. In this post, I’ll review the inventory of available Miami Beach condos, as well as the average price per square foot (PPSF) and the luxury condo market over $2M.

Six-Year Snapshot of Miami Beach Condo Inventory: All Ranges

The graph above shows that the market peaked in 4/05, when the number of condos for sale was the lowest (911) and the number of condos sold was the highest (249). At that time, there were only 3.7 months of condo inventory available, which represents a strong sellers’ market. A real estate market is considered balanced when six to nine months of inventory is available.

Inventory peaked in 7/07, with almost 4,000 units on the market. The sales low-point was between late 2007 and early 2008, with only 70 units sold in 1/08. Currently, there are 2,751 condos for sale in Miami Beach.

Miami Beach Condos: Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory is used to indicate or assess how long it would take to sell all existing condos on the market, assuming the rate of sales stays constant and no new listings are added. Again, the market is considered balanced when six to nine months of inventory is available. In 1/08, there were 56 months of Miami Beach condo inventory available based on closed sales. Today, we are clearly still in a buyers’ market with 17.1 months of inventory available.

Miami Beach Condos:  Tracking Average Price per Square Foot

This graph is kind of boring. Not much can be gleaned from it in my opinion, but some people love it.  I don’t like it because it represents an average. Miami Beach condo inventory swings from one end of the spectrum to the other.

Say you are interested in buying a condo at Apogee South Beach and want to use this chart as a guide. Waste of time. It includes all condos, all price ranges and distressed sales (short sales and bank-owned real estate).

One interesting nugget of info seems to be that the average PPSF peaked in 4/08 at $679. Weird. Today, the average PPSF is $463, which puts us just about at the 4/05 price level ($464).

Average Price per Square Foot for a Miami Beach Condo:  Excluding Distressed Sales (bank-owned and short sales)

I know these numbers are spot-on because the average PPSF in 4/05 and 4/08 is the same in this chart as it is in the previous chart ($464 and $679 respectively). The effect of distressed sales begins to reveal itself in 1/09 through today. The current average PPSF (w/o non-distressed sales) is $659.  That is almost a $200 PPSF difference.  Moving right along to my favorite niche…

Luxury Miami Beach Condos: Six-Year Retrospective – $2M+

This chart is pretty self-explanatory. Inventory peaked in 1/09 with 228 Miami Beach condos for sale OVER $2,000,000. Currently, there are 162 units on the market at this price point. One note about this graph: Apogee and Continuum North were not built until 2008.

Average Price per Square Foot: Miami Beach Luxury Condos

Interesting to note here that the average PPSF for luxury Miami Beach condos peaked right around the same time as the under $2M condos. The numbers here are up and down, but the average PPSF is currently at $1,138 in the luxury sector. The numbers are elevated because a few high-priced condos at Setai, One Bal Harbour and Fontainebleau II closed in the last month or so.

Miami Beach Luxury Condos: Months of Inventory

Eeeh. Some sharp peaks, but overall it looks as though things are headed in the right direction for the $2M+ condo market.  Currently, there are 24 months of inventory at the high end, and clearly that’s not good, but all the really good, prime units in A+ buildings are sold. I think the luxury condo market bottomed out last summer. Deals, really good ones, on really good apartments, have been had. Those days, my friends, are gone.

Before I wrap this all up, I found one more chart that is really eye-opening to me. Probably the best one of them all:

Miami Beach Distressed Condo Sales Statistics: Under $500k

• 2,751 condos on the market in Miami Beach
• 640 or 23.3% are distressed sales
• 585 of the 640 are under $500k (see chart above)

Well, Kevin, What’s Going to Happen Here?

Since my crystal ball, along with everyone else’s Mercedes, is in the shop…

I think that for Miami Beach, clearly, the worst is over. The market has bifurcated. It’s either you are over or under $500k. Period. But, now more than ever, real estate fundamentals, along with your objectives, should be the things that guide you most as you meander through the real estate landscape. Obviously, the best units in the best buildings in the best locations are no-brainers. If you are looking in the under $500k range, there are still going to be some good buys for the foreseeable future. As you can see in the chart above, the inventory of distressed properties is still coming to market at a fairly steady rate, and I don’t see any signs of that inventory drying up anytime soon.

Related Reading

• Miami Beach Real Estate Statistics:  Distressed Properties & Diana Olick

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It looks as if even the mighty can fall.  Things aren’t going so well on Fisher Island; nor for Miami Beach luxury real estate.  In the last few months there has been some pretty interesting activity in the ultra, ultra high-end.  In 2007 there were a few impressive penthouse sales, but in 2008 it was the year of nada.

1455 Ocean Drive PH 6 &7, Miami Beach-Il Villaggio South Beach

Originally listed a long time ago (After a year-or-so, does it matter how long?) for $17.5 M, this penthouse finally sold in March.  The roof top/pool area is spectacular but the apartment is really a two bedroom.  The interior was ALL wood; I really mean ALL wood.  Think maple, EVERYWHERE.  I don’t really attribute this as a “low” sale–I view it more as a pricing issue coupled with a little curable functional obsolence.

The Penthouse at Murano at Portofino (see above) sold in January for $7.6M.  It has 4700+sf interior and a rooftop area in the round cylinder area that wasn’t so nice.  Think fishbowl.  Murano at Portofino is a beautifully kept condo and one of the most desirable condominiums in Miami Beach.  Oh, it was on the market for a really, really, really long time.

A penthouse at Sayan in Sunny Isles Beach sold in March 2009 for $5,250,000.  UPH (upper penthouse) 1 has  5,030 sf, and according to a press release from the interior design firm (uh huh), the penthouse was finished and furnished.

Miami Beach Penthouses Currently on the Market

Continuum South Beach- 100 S. Pointe Drive PH 1, Miami Beach, Fl 33139 $14,950,000

This 7,774 sf,  5 bed/7.5 bath direct oceanfront penthouse has east and north exposures and has been on the market for about two years now.  Original list price was $25M.

Apogee South Beach- 800 S. Pointe Drive PH A, Miami Beach, Fl 33139 $22,000,000*

Billed as one of the most spectacular and prestigious penthouses, anywhere, PH A commands the top two stories of South Florida’s most exclusive condominium.  The Apogee Penthouse boasts 11,000 sf of outdoor area and a private, rooftop “palazzo” with private pool.

Portofino Tower- 300 S. Pointe Drive #PH 4001, Miami Beach, Fl 33139 $12,500,000

Comments from the listing:
Unit being sold with antique French and Italian furniture and sculptures.  Serious cash-buyers only!”
Two things I love about this one:
…”French and Italian furniture and sculptures.”  After reading that, who needs to see the pictures!
“Serious cash-buyers only!”  Wow!  Now that’s some marketing, huh?

Fontainebleau II- 4441 Collins Avenue PH North, Miami Beach, Fl 33140 $13,500,000

New to market and riding high off of the 2008 record sale of the ”South” penthouse for $12.5M, the owner hopes to cash in on that comp from last year.  The north penthouse overlooks the newly renovated Fontainebleau Resort.  Is that good or bad?  This penthouse was home to Top Chef Miami and a few “B” and “C” list celebs have stayed here.  4,500 sf, 4 bedroom/5 baths.  Since Fontainebleau II is a condo-hotel, this PH is eligible to be placed in the rental pool.  Nightly rack room rate is $4500.

Akoya- 6365 Collins Avenue TS 02, Miami Beach, Fl 33141 $1,999,000*

Perched 47 dizzing stories above the Atlantic, TS (tower suite) 2 has some of the most jaw-dropping views on Miami Beach.  Occupying the 46 & 47 th floors of Miami Beach’s tallest building, TS 2 has 2,777 sf, 3 bedrooms, 4.5 baths and a private rooftop terrace.  Pretty impressive real estate for $720 psf.

Acqualina- 17875 Collins Avenue PH 5002, Sunny Isles Beach, Fl 33160 $12,900,000*

Though technically not in Miami Beach, this penthouse deserves recognition because it is the priciest real estate available north of Miami Beach (and my listing, too!).  Occupying the complete northern half of Sunny Isles’ most exclusive building, #5002 (fifty floors!) has over 8,000 sf, 4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, and, of course, it’s own private pool.  Acqualina has exceptional spa-like amenities including an outpost of NYC’s Il Mulino restaurant.

Other Penthouses available, as if there aren’t enough already:

• W South Beach- 2201 Collins Avenue PH 2 $9.9M

Related Posts

• Miami Beach Real Estate:  Apogee South Beach Penthouse Lists for $22M
• $18.5M Penthouse at 1500 Ocean Drive Goes Under Contract
• SBCB Scoop:  Miami Beach’s $29M Setai Penthouse Under Contract
• Miami Beach Penthouse Report, May ’07

Search disgustingly expensive Miami Beach real estate

* denotes my listing

Then, I had a flicker of hope in my head that someone “up there” would want to get the actual story, not what they THINK is going on here, but waiting to see until they get here and, then, actually finding out what the deal is and then do the segment.  Novel, huh!

I deal with a lot of media.  Inevitably, the first words out of their mouths are:  “We’re doing a story on Miami being the worst city in the World,” or something to that extent.  Some people are media ho’s and will tell them whatever THEY WANT TO HEAR just to get their name in some, ANY, media.  Not me.

So, then I had my thought for this post.  General thoughts on Miami real estate.  So here it goes.

How is Miami Real Estate?

Miami has been dealing with two problems:

1. Sub-prime (which really isn’t affecting many of the properties below above $800,000)
2. The condo over-supply on the Brickell/Biscayne Corridor area.

If someone from the media were to ask me my thoughts about the Miami real estate market, here’s what I’d have to say:

There hasn’t been anywhere near the walk-a-ways that were predicted two and three years ago.  Sure, it is much harder to get people to the closing table, BUT that is in part due to the bank failures and the liquidity issues, in general.  Most of the walk-a-ways couldn’t get finanacing.

The market has bifurcated.  Some areas are doing okay and some aren’t.  For example, luxury Miami Beach condos in South Beach have fared quite well, with consistent year-over-year increases.  Coral Gables is doing well as a city and Pinecrest is having a tougher go of it.  Homestead is foreclosure central.  So a responsible journalist CAN’T say, “oh Miami real estate is in trouble,” because it’s just not true.

On Miami Beach

I’ve watched the city become PACKED in the last two weeks.  Lots going on.  The Fontainebleau is opening as I write this.  A $500M renovation of the infamous hotel which will make the Fontainebleau South Florida’s largest resort.  Rumor has it, Mariah Carey is going to be there (I wish I was there–thanks Nadine Johnson!).  The Victoria Secret Fashion Show (televised) is taping tomorrow.  The $500M Canyon Ranch Living-Miami Beach just opened a 586-room resort just up the street from the Fontainbleau at 68th  and Collins.

Art Basel, the country’s biggest contemporary art show returns to Miami Beach.  From the Miami Herald:

The center’s four-day art show has exploded into a week of festivals from the mainland to Miami Beach, with a global following paying sky-high hotel rates and generating a stream of private jets that tourism officials say rivals a Super Bowl.

An Irresistable Allure

What Miami has in spades, is sex.  Sex still sells–It will ALWAYS sell.  Miami is sexy.  Take the real estate discussion of Miami away and people will have nothing but great things to say.

If the economy is so bad (and it is–just not so much here), how come Bal Harbour Shoppes, which is the HIGHEST grossing mall per square foot in the country, was packed today?  Why can’t I find a parking spot? ANYWHERE.

• Singin’ the Fontainbleau Shut Out Blues [Miami Herald]
• Art Basel in Miami Beach For Three More Years [Miami Herald]

I was a bit surprised to see how many of the $5M+ condo sales this year were on Fisher Island. Five units went for more than $5M; that is one a month! And if you think that’s pricey, then consider the $250K equity membership you must purchase just to use any of the Fisher Island’s amenities!

The Setai came in with the highest $ psf for non-pre-construction at just over $2300.

And get this—W South Beach sold a 2,700 sq. ft., south-facing PH for a cool $7.3M. Impressive, considering W South Beach just commenced construction and isn’t slated for completion until mid-2009!

Fontainebleau II sold an incredible PH for $6.4M. The view from this 4,500 sq. ft. residence with rooftop Jacuzzi is amazing.

SPECTACULAR MIAMI BEACH REAL ESTATE:

NEW TO MARKET

MIAMI BEACH PENTHOUSES

Il Villaggio – Spectacular PH in one of Miami Beach’s finest and most desirable buildings, Il Villaggio. $17,500,000. This Penthouse is a stellar piece of real estate. The unit has A LOT of millwork, so you better like wood-EVERYTHING!


1500 Ocean Drive- Largest condominium residence ever to hit the Miami Beach real estate market! 11,940 sq. ft. + 9,824 sq. ft. balcony/rooftop; 10 parking spaces (that’s right, 10!). Taxes: $107,246; monthly maintenance: $10,817. $18,500,000. 1500 Ocean Drive was built in 2000 and designed by architect Michael Graves.


Continuum- Tri- level, 40th floor Penthouse in SoFi’s exclusive Continuum I. Breathtaking direct ocean, South Beach and Fisher Island views! 7,400 sq. ft. with 6,000 sq. ft. of terrace with pool. Oh yeah, a paltry $25,000,000 for this pied-a-terre.  [Update: off market]


Continuum- While this is not a TRUE Penthouse, this one rates! This unit was in the BIG hit movie Miami Vice (joke). This condo is the epitome of over the top drama. It is basically a sexy bachelor pad. I love this unit– ALL FANTASY, NO REALITY! $18,000,000…chump change!  [Update: off market]

Setai-This isn’t the TRUE Penthouse in Setai, but it has received a lot of play by throwing that PH “thing” around. PH Villa B is a single-story unit in the uber-fab Setai, which basically is a deluxe hotel room which they “say” commands $25K per night. Madonna and Mariah have slept there; out of Britney’s and Lindsay’s league! I wonder if David Hasselhoff has dined on the master bathroom floor? Hmmmm….