I was watching Channel 7 News last week when a special segment about real estate foreclosures in South Florida aired.  I felt badly for the people in this story that are losing their homes but there are two messages in the video segment below which I feel may be beneficial to some.

It is my feeling that foreclosures in general ARE NOT the best buys for one reason:  the majority of the foreclosures that are available were originally purchased at or near the “peak” of the market—and the banks have lent too much money on these properties.  Since the banks are owed so much money on a typical foreclosed property, they don’t have the ability to sell it at today’s market price.  From WSVN’s Foreclosure Forced Out

Auctioneer: “Welcome to the mortgage foreclosure sale.”

Each week, hundreds of properties in foreclosure are auctioned off.

Auctioneer: ”Home Equity Mortgage Corp. vs. Butler.”

On this day, for the first time in 21 years, not a single property sold, the banks had to keep them all.

Luis Valdeon: “The banks lent too much money. They did first mortgage and second mortgages, and they’re completely off of what the price really are, and that’s why everything is so high; you can’t sell them.”

And the foreclosed properties are piling up.

Click Above to Play Video

Why The Miami Beach Real Estate Market Isn’t That Bad

This is a five year history for the South Beach condo market for area code 33139.  The dark green bar represents condo sales and the light green bar represents condo units on the market.

I know that some of the numbers are a bit hard to read but they really don’t matter anyway.  What matters is the incredible amout of inventory (light green bar) that started to accumulate in May 2005.  The number of sales are off from the peak, but nothing alarming.  The real story here is the amount of inventory on the market.  People have not stopped buying here and Miami Beach real estate continues to sell if it is priced right.  If you need to sell your Miami Beach condo, PRICE IT RIGHT.  If you don’t need to sell your condo, now is NOT the time to sell and you should take it off the market until some of the inventory gets absorbed.  More from Foreclosure Forced Out

Barry Habib: “There’s no simple solution.”

Barry Habib is a nationally known mortgage expert. His advice? Get out before you get in trouble.

Barry Habib: “If they have equity in it, they’ve got to find a way to protect that equity. Put the house up for sale. Don’t be greedy. Don’t try and put it up at an unrealistic number. Homes sell, and they sell very quickly if they’re priced right in every market.”

When I was interviewed last month by The New York Times for a piece Miami Beach real estate, specifically luxury condos, I was asked to research the condo market going back two years. 

 What I decided to do, since SO many people have asked me, was to do a three year snapshot of the market, specifically for the SoFi neighborhood in South Beach, which includes Continuum South Beach, Murano at Portofino, Murano Grande, ICON South Beach, Portofino Tower, Yacht Club at Portofino, and South Pointe Tower.  When doing this type of analysis, I really like using this neighborhood because it has a high concentration of units, which provides accurate insight into the luxury condo market activity of Miami Beach condos. 

I used one time period: January 1st-October 3^rd of three years (2005, 2006, and 2007).  It is very interesting to see how the market has progressed during the last three years.  Here is a great Miami Beach neighborhood map

The graph above represents number of sales for each building in the SoFi neighborhood.  Most would think that the number of sales would be highest in 2004–2005.  Even though 2007 is down from 2006, in ALL cases the number of sales are higher than in 2005.

This graph shows the issue for condos in general—with the exception of Continuum South Beach, the average days on market have all substantially increased from 2005.

The graph above shows a three year history of average $ p.s.f.  SOLD prices for all the condos in the South of Fifth neighborhood.  Continuum South Beach continues to climb without any fluctuations.  Overall,  each building is holding its own and the neighborhood in general continues to do well.

This graph represents the list price ($ p.s.f.) to the sold price ($ p.s.f.) for each year.  It basically tracks the list price to sale price ratio for each building for all three years.  The blue bar is the list price (in $ p.s.f.) and the green bar represents the sold price (in $ p.s.f.).  Things to note from this graph:  ICON South Beach peaked in 2006 and Continuum South Beach continues to march onward and upward. 

I have to admit I was not surprised by the numbers.  Most of what I see here only re-inforces my recommendations from my South Beach Luxury Condo Outlook 2008 post.

Miami Beach real estate, Continuum South Beach, ICON South Beach, South Beach condos, South Beach real estate, Miami condo statistics, Miami luxury condos, 33139

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Sorry about the late update of the October installment of the South Beach condo statistics. I just re-launched my new website. The new website, www.kevintomlinson.com, has incredible and first-ever features like the ability to track changes of the list price of all Miami Beach condos (or at least the ones represented on the site).

South Beach Real Estate Blog: Your Miami Beach Real Estate On-line Newsroom

Ok, so historically, August and September are the slowest months of the year with regard to Miami Beach real estate sales activity. The numbers from last month’s post don’t really reflect anything earth-shattering.

This data is based on information from the Southeast Florida Regional (SEFR) MLS or from the associations participating in the SEFR for the period 1/1/07 through 10/3/2007.

This South Beach condo analysis covers the South Beach condos: Continuum South Beach, Murano at Portofino, Murano Grande, ICON South Beach, Portofino Tower, Yacht Club at Portofino, and South Pointe Tower

Here are some of the highlights:

Continuum had five closings from 9/4/2007–10/3/2007. That is impressive given the time of the year.

Miami Beach Condo Sellers: Time Is NOT Your Friend

Here, surprisingly, the average days on market has actually fallen in every condominium except Murano Grande from the previous months stats. ICON South Beach and Portofino Tower are continuing to choke on their own inventory. Every building except for Murano at Portofino and Continuum has problems with their amount of inventory and time on the market.

I sense that many owners are waiting for “season” before adjusting their prices where they need to be. Being “on the ground,” I know that there are buyers out there, it is just that so many sellers are not being realistic or hearing what the market is telling them.

Kevin’s advice: If you are a serious Miami Beach condo seller, don’t wait until after the “season” (“season” typically is December-June) to re-evaluate your pricing, DO IT NOW! If you plan on re-evaluating your list price, here is a guide to help you do it, the right way.

A normal real estate market dictates that about 10% of the condominium’s units could be available for sale at any given time. Murano Grande, ICON South Beach, and Portofino Tower have way too much inventory. Real estate market fundamentals, like location and supply and demand, are more important than ever.

Here is a quick run-down of the Miami Beach real estate activity in the SoFi neighborhood of South Beach from 9/4/07 thru 10/3/07:

Nine units closed, four of which were in Continuum South Beach

Two units pended (awaiting closing, under contract); both of which were in ICON South Beach

40 units came on the market

• Continuum: 7
• Murano at Portofino: 6
• Murano Grande: 7
• ICON South Beach: 5
• Portofino Tower: 2
• Yacht Club at Portofino: 9
• South Pointe Tower: 4

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With the real estate market in a state of flux, absorption rates are increasingly used as an indicator to assess how long it would take to sell ALL the existing condos in each condominium, assuming the rate of sales stays constant and no new listings are added to the inventory. Additionally, absorption rates are the best way of tracking market performance. They are usually used to indicate “overall real estate market performance,” or how an entire market is doing.

To calculate monthly absorption rate, I have taken all the condos that are currently on the market in each building in the South of Fifth Street (SoFi) neighborhood of South Beach, and divided them by the number of listings that have sold in their respective condo in the past six months and divided that number by six. Many people compute absorption rates by using the number of sales in a one month period, but I use a six month sales average so it “smoothes” the seasonal “peaks and valleys” to gauge the true overall activity.

The data was based on information from the Southeast Florida Regional (SEFR) MLS or from the associations participating in the SEFR for the period 1/1/07 through 9/3/2007.

Here’s the math:

Number of listings: 40

Number of sales in the last six months: 8

8 divided by 6= 1.33 sales per month

Number of listings: 40 divided by number of sales per month: 1.33= 30 months of supply

Key for South Beach Condos-Absorption Rates

The chart below illustrates the absorption rates for the Continuum, Murano at Portofino, Murano Grande, ICON South Beach, Portofino Tower, Yacht Club at Portofino, and South Pointe Tower, and shows how each building is performing relative to the amount of inventory and the amount of sales.

Red Hot Condo Buyers Market in South Beach

From the graph it is clear the Portofino Tower is a “red hot” buyers market with 34 months of inventory. Also, ICON and Yacht Club at Portofino are good condominiums to focus on as well. A balanced market is generally anywhere between six to nine months of inventory, anything above nine months is considered a buyers market.

What Does This Mean for Miami Beach Condo Sellers?

If you are looking to sell your Miami Beach real estate, make sure your prospective real estate broker keeps you informed about the market conditions in your specific area and building. Knowing the absorption rate for your South Beach condo will help you determine how aggressive you need to be with pricing, staging, and marketing your condo to maximize the likelihood of a prompt sale!

South Beach Luxury Condos in 33139: Continuum, Murano at Portofino, Murano Grande, ICON South Beach, Portofino Tower, Yacht Club at Portofino, South Pointe Tower

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