Comments on: South Beach Real Estate Shock and Awe: SoFi Luxury Condo Sales Up 41.9% Over 2007

By: Graham Gordon

Graham Gordon — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 15:51:07 +0000

How has the market in South Beach been lately? I’ve heard there has been steady sales at incredible prices. I may have a post on Miami in the upcoming days as well.

By: sofi fan

sofi fan — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 16:50:35 +0000

hello, what was the price per sq. ft. average for 2008 ? how do you see new product coming up, like the high end stuff next to Prime 112, particularly South of Fifth. do these buildings have financing to finish ? when would you look into them ? after 50% close or wait for higher closings but risking losing out on good apartments. Is there value in these new SoFi projects ? thanks

By: ja

ja — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 20:34:13 +0000

I think Kevin is dead on. Sofi has performed amazingly through the RE downturn (relative to the rest of Florida). But 2009 will certainly not hold the same as previous years.

Already I’m seeing huge price cuts here and there on higher end buildings. And not just mere price cuts from overpriced levels, but ones that if sold even close to asking would suggest anywhere from a 10-20% drop from last year’s sales prices of comparable units.

That’s what happens when you have a 2-3 yr backlog of inventory and not enough demand. The few who actually need to sell and aren’t just “testing the waters” are forced to give big discounts to make their units more appealing.

By: Charles

Charles — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 21:31:23 +0000

The main thing is that people are buying property again. We’re seeing the same thing in the Vegas market. The influx of foreclosures have depressed prices down to levels where some buyers have been priced out in the past.

By: Kevin Tomlinson

Kevin Tomlinson — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 23:28:11 +0000

Oxford Homes,
Thanks, but I don’t think 2009 will offer what the previous years have.

Even though Miami real estate and condos have taken a huge beating in the press, South Beach has not really been affected, until now.

By: Oxford Homes For Sale

Oxford Homes For Sale — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 00:06:11 +0000

Congrats on having a market that is increasing! I am sure the economy will turn around for the rest of us as well! It’s all a mindset! I agree with you that it is better to stick with facts rather than emotions.

By: Adriana Faerman

Adriana Faerman — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 20:57:30 +0000

Kevin, very useful and exciting information. I understand that absorption rates were left out of the picture, but the fact that the average price per sq.ft went down as low as 2.3% is good news. Also, I believe that your market is weathering this storm with high scores as compared with Sunny Isles and Aventura. I am handling a lot of foreclosures and some short sales in the $150,000 to $400,000 price range and the inventory keep increasing although there have been bids for some units that surpassed their asking price. Interesting, isn’t it?
Kevin, great blog!, as usual coming from an expert like you.

By: Kevin Tomlinson

Kevin Tomlinson — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 04:45:47 +0000

JA,
I’ve been thinking and analyzing your comment. I do agree with you–things are grim. They will get undoubtedly get worse.

I always trust my gut and it’s never failed me yet. I’m feeling that we will be nearing the bottom soon, in the next six or so months. Why? Because the BEST neighborhoods are the last to go down AND the first to come up.

I have another post to come out in the next day or so on another Miami Beach sub-market, but right after that I am going to do a post comparing last January’s activity to this January’s activity. It’s not gonna be puuuuurty.

By: Kevin Tomlinson

Kevin Tomlinson — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 03:09:17 +0000

JA,
Hey! Welcome back. Just for you I will do an absorption rate post, ok?

But as mentioned from our last comment stream, my posts tend to focus on what has already happened not what will happen.

Ok?

By: ja

ja — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 23:24:16 +0000

Kevin, great analysis. However, you left out half the picture – the supply side of the equation. How has inventory been in the area?

Just because sales are up doesn’t mean great news, especially if inventory is up by a much greater %.

Again, that is why I think you should present the data on absorption rates and how they have changed from 2007 to present. It captures both supply and demand.

And once you look at that #, I think things look pretty grim.