I have no idea what that Miami condo forum is but I’ll check it out. Thanks

If you have a question about real estate or this building or neighborhood vs. that one, this blog is not the forum for that.

If I have a opinion that could hurt an innocent by-stander, it will not be trumpeted on this blog. It will be private, and I will get paid for it.

One last thing, I have good relationships with people see things differently than I.

I have a good relationship with Miamicondoforum.com.

He completely has the right to say whatever he feels.

As a courtesy to you and your time, I will let your comment stand. Lucas over at miamicondoinvestments.com is my good buddy, BUT what goes on in his comments WILL not be allowed here.

Good debate will always welcomed, but questioning my ethics will not be welcomed, nor tolerated.

No, but that doesn’t stop people from making educated predictions. If the requirement for a prediction is absolute certainty, you’ve set the bar too high. We might as well invest by throwing dice to make our decisions.

“Yes, absorbtion rates are high AND real estate is governed by laws of supply/demand AND location.”

Absorption rates are SKY HIGH. And pricing is determined by supply and demand. Location, as perceived desirability, falls under demand. Absorption rates nicely capture both the demand side and the supply side of the equation. And those #s look horrific, as you must admit. 2.6yrs and 3.86yrs absorption rate, when a balanced market is 6 months. There is no way to spin that into something remotely positive.

“Here is the most insightful thing I have to say: The best neighborhoods are the last to go down”

I agree. And they are going down as we speak.

“I can see how empassioned you are about the morbidity of the market–but the reality is not one person in anyone of those towers is going to go without health care or food.”

Maybe not. But there are people who view their condo as an investment and don’t mind taking a loss if they think it will save them in the long-run. Actually, if you talk to some of the owners who are dropping their prices you’d know this is the case. And some people are financially pinched (though not to the extent of going homeless, of course).

“On my blog I WILL not be a purveyor of doom and gloom; nor will I be a cheerleader for ANY desired outcome.”

If this were the case you would have openly provided absorption rates in your above analysis and acknowledged that they are horrible, rather than claim that Sofi is “the neighborhood in South Beach that continues to defy ALL trends”. Just curious what trend it is defying with respect to increasing inventory and dwindling demand.

It looks to me as if the countertops are Silestone. Since modernism is in, yes, I am seeing a trend away from granite because it seems to be too “warm” for modern interior design (except for Absolute Black, of course).

With regard to asking prices vs. actual sale prices, I’d have to say that there really is no real gauge of list to sell ratio.

As you know, the “numbers are the numbers” and when sellers are open to hearing the real value of their property that is when properties tend to sell. As @jonathanmiller says: “..more people actually want to know value vs value they need.”