If you are a buyer or a seller of South Beach real estate, you may be wondering how the market is holding up for condos in Miami Beach.  I like to use the South of Fifth neighborhood (SoFi) because it has a nice concentration of condos and is considered the area of the most prestigious condominiums in the greatest concentration.  There are 2110 condos (that’s right!) in the nine buildings in the South Beach Condo Market Index.

This data is based on information from the  Southeast Florida Regional (SEFR) MLS or from the associations participating in the SEFR for the period of 1/1/2008-11/9/2008.

Miami Beach Real Estate

My last post on Miami Beach condo stats was on August 6th.  Between June 30th and November 11th the number of sales in each condo is as follows:

• Apogee South Beach-3
• Continuum South-5
• Continuum North-8
• ICON South Beach-14
• Murano-1
• Murano Grande-7
• Portofino Tower-3
• South Pointe Tower-2
• Yacht Club at Portofino-6

Miami Beach Condo Sellers:  Here’s your cup of coffee

Nothing really shocking here, but looking at the numbers from just over a year ago, inventory is hanging around much longer.  What most don’t realize is that the chart above is probably the most telling of all.  Here’s the rub:  condos don’t sell for whatever reason (I know what it is, but more on that later) and the inventory continues to back up.  Buyers see this as even more of a reason to either make “low ball” offers or wait on the sidelines.  Why?  Because real estate is primarily driven by the law of supply and demand.  Lots of supply/low demand:  prices fall.  A great anecdote is the price of gas over the last few months.  Demand eased, inventory backed up, and prices fell.

Generally, 10% of the building inventory could be for sale at any one time.  The average condo inventory for each of the nine buildings in South Beach-SoFi is 15.9%; which is up from 13.3% from 6/30/2008, or an EXTRA 55 units added to the normal amount of inventory already on the market.  Obviously, Continuum North and Apogee South Beach have added a lot of units to the market, but that is normal.  Their percentages will come down.

Here’s the fun one.  Six of the nine buildings have gone up in price ($ PSF) since the last market report.  Apogee surprises me, time and time again.  Apogee South Beach is #1 since it came on the market earlier this year.

I heard this week through my grapevine that 60 Minutes is doing yet another segment on Miami Beach real estate.   I started thinking…..”hmmmm, I wonder what their angle will be?  Foreclosures?  Walk-aways from condo contract-holders?”  It’s gonna be just miserable. Same story done for the last three years, I’m sure.

Then, I had a flicker of hope in my head that someone “up there” would want to get the actual story, not what they THINK is going on here, but waiting to see until they get here and, then, actually finding out what the deal is and then do the segment.  Novel, huh!

I deal with a lot of media.  Inevitably, the first words out of their mouths are:  “We’re doing a story on Miami being the worst city in the World,” or something to that extent.  Some people are media ho’s and will tell them whatever THEY WANT TO HEAR just to get their name in some, ANY, media.  Not me.

So, then I had my thought for this post.  General thoughts on Miami real estate.  So here it goes.

How is Miami Real Estate?

Miami has been dealing with two problems:

1. Sub-prime (which really isn’t affecting many of the properties below above $800,000)
2. The condo over-supply on the Brickell/Biscayne Corridor area.

If someone from the media were to ask me my thoughts about the Miami real estate market, here’s what I’d have to say:

There hasn’t been anywhere near the walk-a-ways that were predicted two and three years ago.  Sure, it is much harder to get people to the closing table, BUT that is in part due to the bank failures and the liquidity issues, in general.  Most of the walk-a-ways couldn’t get finanacing.

The market has bifurcated.  Some areas are doing okay and some aren’t.  For example, luxury Miami Beach condos in South Beach have fared quite well, with consistent year-over-year increases.  Coral Gables is doing well as a city and Pinecrest is having a tougher go of it.  Homestead is foreclosure central.  So a responsible journalist CAN’T say, “oh Miami real estate is in trouble,” because it’s just not true.

On Miami Beach

I’ve watched the city become PACKED in the last two weeks.  Lots going on.  The Fontainebleau is opening as I write this.  A $500M renovation of the infamous hotel which will make the Fontainebleau South Florida’s largest resort.  Rumor has it, Mariah Carey is going to be there (I wish I was there–thanks Nadine Johnson!).  The Victoria Secret Fashion Show (televised) is taping tomorrow.  The $500M Canyon Ranch Living-Miami Beach just opened a 586-room resort just up the street from the Fontainbleau at 68th  and Collins.

Art Basel, the country’s biggest contemporary art show returns to Miami Beach.  From the Miami Herald:

The center’s four-day art show has exploded into a week of festivals from the mainland to Miami Beach, with a global following paying sky-high hotel rates and generating a stream of private jets that tourism officials say rivals a Super Bowl.

An Irresistable Allure

What Miami has in spades, is sex.  Sex still sells–It will ALWAYS sell.  Miami is sexy.  Take the real estate discussion of Miami away and people will have nothing but great things to say.

If the economy is so bad (and it is–just not so much here), how come Bal Harbour Shoppes, which is the HIGHEST grossing mall per square foot in the country, was packed today?  Why can’t I find a parking spot? ANYWHERE.

• Singin’ the Fontainbleau Shut Out Blues [Miami Herald]
• Art Basel in Miami Beach For Three More Years [Miami Herald]

I remember selling Canyon Ranch Living -Miami Beach condos–oh man, at least five years ago.  I sold them before they had a sales office– at the developer’s office on 41st Street in Miami Beach.  It seems like it was a lifetime ago. 

Today, I had the opportunity to take a tour of the Canyon Ranch Living Hotel and Restaurant.  I was treated to a lunch with the developer, not a buffet-thing for agents, but a real impromptu lunch at the Canyon Ranch Living Restaurant.  The hotel is now in it’s soft opening phase. 

After healthy-living, Canyon Ranch is known for it’s food.  I wrote a post for the opening of DeVito’s Restaurant in South Beach and I had some disappointed readers annoyed that I didn’t “photograph” the menu.  It seems a little cheesy to me, but here it is…..

The numbers to the side of each menu selection display the calorie/carb/fat counts for each. 

Now that the “menu issue” is off my ”plate,” follow me right through my lunch today at Canyon Ranch.

As I entered the lobby, the paparazzi were frightening.  Flash bulbs.  “Kevin, over here!”  “How are you today, Kevin?”  “Can I get a smile for the New York Times, Kevin?”  Stressful.  Now I know what they all go through.  Oh, and the lobby is pretty hot, too!

The hotel is located in the center or Carillon Tower.  The Carillon was the hotel in it’s day (50’s) and a stellar example of Mimo (Miami modern) architecture.  A few people I know, including Rose Harris, babble about getting “it” for the first time at the Carillon.  I don’t know what she “got”, but I hope it is not communicable.  I’m not a big fan of looking back and re-hashing the olden days….so maybe someone can comment here more about “the day.”  Canyon Ranch Living-Miami Beach 2008:  think more Lindsay post-rehab and less Frank Sinatra (was there rehab in the “day”?).  

The restaurant is located just off the lobby and, as expected, both have a very earthy, and very high-end, feeling.  Though not open today, the restaurant has a very large outdoor seating area, and as far as I know, Canyon Ranch will have the only restaurant with oceanfront dining.  The Ritz-Carlton in South Beach has a very nice restaurant on the boardwalk, but Canyon’s restaurant is ON the ocean and comes complete with climate-control (that’s my fancy way of saying dining alfresco at Canyon is air-conditioned).  What recession.

My delicious mixed-greens salad, and in the distance, a chicken appetizer the Dieter raves about.

I know my knife is crooked, it bothers me, too.  I’m not a fan of pulled pork ANYTHING, but today I ventured out of my comfort zone and ordered the pulled CHICKEN sandwich.  I figured that this would be a safe foray into the “pulled” arena.  If you like spicy, you’ll love this.  My sandwich was on a great whole-wheat/multi-grain-type bun.  Dieter and Phil had the churrasco.  In front of my plate were the artichoke french fries.  That’s right.  The food was perfect and I loved the size of the portions.  I didn’t feel like a big, fat cow after eating.  After lunch we had a “home-made” soda.  It’s delicious because, the juice of choice, I had passion-fruit, is poured right into a sparkling soda.

This is the lounge area between the lobby and the restaurant.  This is the only Canyon Ranch that serves alcohol (organic, I’m told).

There is so much to see at Canyon Ranch, I couldn’t possibly fit it in all into one post.  Later in the week, I’m getting a tour of the hotel rooms and early next week, a tour OF THE SPA.

Browse Canyon Ranch Living real estate here

• More on Canyon Ranch Living-Miami Beach [Miami Herald]