Comments on: Miami Beach Real Estate: Are Buyers Rounding the “Fear Curve?”

By: Grayson

Grayson — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 03:21:01 +0000

Like your blog. Appreciate your honesty. Few points about this data. 1) Need to look at about 5 years 2) Showing volume without average or median price is not very helpful. Could be increased volume at discount prices. Or maybe not. But that’s a key data point. Finally, I looked at OFHEO data for Miami MSA past 40 years. Interesting points: 1) Avg annual growth of 5.5% through 1997. 2) From 97 to 2007 avg growth of 10%. Back of the envelope calculation that extrapolates the region’s home prices from 1997 based on 5.5% historical growth puts the region at 35% overpriced according to latest quarter’s median price data. Is the Beach that different from the rest of the Miami region? That’s the question, I guess.

By: Diana Turloff

Diana Turloff — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 19:08:50 +0000

A while ago this blogsite had a post about the worsening financial condition of Carlos Justo and his firm, Sol Sotheby’s. Anybody have an update to this? Seems to be that he leveraged himself way too heavily and got himself in some bad stuff.

By: Kevin Tomlinson

Kevin Tomlinson — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 03:07:37 +0000

Jonathan
Thank you for your compliment. The Trendgraphix reports go back 15 months but I will try to get my hands on an old chart to compare.

Those condos are in the downtown area of Miami. There really isn’t a residential living component to Miami. But, I guess that will have to change now that the buildings are all just about up.

South Beach/Miami Beach are very different from Miami proper. I have a building much like 15 CPW that defies all logic. The foreclosures/short-sale stuff is not from sub-prime stuff it is from mortgauge fraud.

It’s not going to be pretty but Miami was the first one in the “new” real estate market; so we’ve been “in this” for over three years.

It will be very interesting to see how the summer months unfold. I have my “predictions” but usually keep them to myself.

By: Jonathan Miller

Jonathan Miller — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 01:20:31 +0000

Kevin – you’ve got a great blog. Interesting post. I cringed when I heard Cramer base his entire analysis on stock analogies. He is notorious for not understanding the housing market. Viewing housing like stocks – THAT was the problem to begin with.

The chart presented shows seasonal growth. Can you show a 2 year? I’ll bet sales levels are lower this year versus last year. Also, if there are 22,000 units slated to enter the market (per the Miami Herald article) and the market absorbs 3k per year (a wild guess), thats 7+ years to absorb.

I hear South Beach is very different from downtown Miami though and is doing better than greater Miami. No? We see that segmentation in NYC. Manhattan shows the most strength.