South Beach Condos Blog

Last week I attended the INMAN Connect, a real estate technology conference. While attending various seminars and listening to many people’s opinions about this or that, there was one common question throughout the conference which kept coming up in every conversation:   What’s next for Manhattan real estate?

I saw it everywhere, from Dolly Lenz’ quote in The Real Deal:

“It’s a stale market.”

to last Sunday’s article in The New York Times.  Apparently, many people are beginning to recognize the signs of “a new market” emerging.

I’ve always said that Miami real estate was 10 years ahead of NYC with regard to real estate.  We were the first to boom.  We had the first branded condos. We had the first “starchitects.”  We were the first to have the new “sexy,” “lifestyle” condos.  Miami did “zen” three years before most people even knew what it was.  We were the first to BUST.

I remember looking (there was really nothing to read) at New York Magazine about two years ago and noticing a special section which debuted called “VU.”  It was a section dedicated to real estate in Manhattan and advertised all the glitzy, modern, edgy, branded new towers, and was like premium cocaine for the real estate addict.  I remember thinking to myself, “this reminds me of Ocean Drive magazine three years ago.”

Remembering back to the spring of 2005, I had a conversation with a colleague about the real estate market here in South Beach, I remember telling her that the boom was over and to get ready.  She, of course, laughed and told me how crazy I was and that South Beach was a WORLD-FAMOUS destination and the real estate market would NEVER have to endure so much as hiccup in South Beach.

We continued to discuss the ying-and-yang of it all, but we decided to disagree. 

All The Signs Are There

While reading the January issue of The Real Deal, I decided to pull some quotes and titles at random from the magazine, I love this one the best:

“Starck heads downmarket”

Come on, Philippe Starck is now doing RENTALS in JERSEY????  Priceless.

“A sober look at year ahead”

“Residential brokers hang onto hope”

“Will the city’s hotel market stay strong or stall amid a glut?”

“Playing by a new set of rules”

“The exuberance has dissipated a bit.”  Gil Neary, The Real Deal

Here’s What I See

• Lots of inventory in the pipeline
• Attitude of buyers changing
• Attitude of agents changing
• Loss of liquidity in the mortgage markets
• Recession
• Heavy reliance on the foreign buyer
• Banks are laying off workers

What Will Be Will Be

As an agent selling real estate in Miami Beach for over 15 years, I was in the business before the boom, during the boom, and now in the messy aftermath of the bust.  Truth be told, it’s not all that bad.  Sure, I miss the days of 2004–2005 market, but just like the condo bust of 1983 on Brickell Avenue, Miami recovered then, and will again.

Words of Wisdom

Now, before anyone out there goes “postal” on me, I’m not wishing for this to happen.  What I can tell you is that I have lived this already, and from hindsight, see all the same signs of trouble on the horizon.  I learned that you can’t be “positive” because people will either hate your for “spinning” the situation or think your are completely clueless; it’s a tough position to be in.  Don’t use inane descriptors like “balanced market” or “soft landing.”  Just be real and accept the current market for exactly what it is at that point.  Suze Orman said something once, I don’t remember exactly what it was but she said “perception is reality, and if people perceive the market as bad, than it is bad.” 

As for Miami, the worst is still ahead of us.  From my calculations our “bubble” burst in April, 2005.  So, it seems to me that we are almost three years into our healing process and there is no doubt that a bumpy road ahead still exists.  So, all you guys up there in NYC remember:  the best locations are the last to go down and the first to come up!

I recently had a client who purchased a large condominium in South Beach.  While doing my research on available inventory of like/kind units in the neighborhood, I came to dissect each one of the luxury buildings to find out how many units were comparable to my buyer-client’s unit.  Here are some interesting real estate tid-bits about large units (over 2500 sq. ft.) in luxury condos in South Beach:

There are a total of 173 units with over 2500 sq. ft. in a total of six buildings:

Portofino Tower-13

Now, in just a few weeks, Apogee South Beach will add 67 condos and Continuum South Beach-North Tower will add approximately 40 condos over 2500 sq. ft. to the South Beach real estate condo inventory.

Use the following links to learn more about available condos for sale at Miami Beach’s most luxurious condos

I’ve had a large number of people contacting me and asking me about 2007 condo stats for Miami Beach and South Beach condos. I plan to do the 2007 statistics this week and post most of them by this weekend.

I plan to analyze each Miami Beach condo’s stats separately, and group them by neighborhood as well. I also plan to give the numbers as they are, WITHOUT SPIN.

There has been a lot of talk about the Case Schiller home price index of late. This index seems to be the most “respected” index lately, probably because the numbers are the worst for South Florida.

According to a widely followed national home price index released Wednesday, prices of homes in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties fell 12.4 percent in October from last year. The Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller index says the South Florida region posted the worst decline of 20 major metropolitan areas it follows.

Here are some interesting reads just to highlight the differences in the numbers:

Miami Herald, Thursday, Dec. 27th

The discrepancies boil down to the very different methods the groups use to calculate their numbers. Each method provides a snapshot — and only a snapshot — in a very diverse real estate scene whose more than 1.2 million properties stretch from upscale waterfront communities and suburbs to inner-city neighborhoods. Analyzing just how bad the market is occupies cocktail chatter and boardroom debates, and these differing data highlight the difficulties of figuring out exactly what is going on.

The Wall Street Examiner, Monday, Dec. 31st

In my reports to subscribers of the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Housing and Real Estate Report, I regularly review data from Housingtracker.net, a service that collects the MLS data posted on Realtor.com for 55 of the largest metros in the US. Their data showed that just after Thanksgiving the average of the median listing prices of each of the 55 metros was down 5.5% on the year. As of December 24, that figure had sunk to -6.2%. The monthly price change in November was -1.5%. In December the monthly decline had accelerated to 2.2%. In December, one market showed an increase in price. 6 were unchanged. 48 were lower.

Miami Herald, Wednesday, Jan. 2nd

South Florida’s housing market continued to deflate in November, with prices down, sales plunging, and buyers scarce and frugal, according to numbers released by the Florida Association of Realtors Monday.

This article has nothing to do with this post, but I thought it was interesting.