Comments on: New York City Real Estate: Are You Next?

By: Miami Beach Real Estate: Could It Really Be True? | South Beach Real Estate Blog | Miami Beach Condos Information

Fri, 16 May 2008 02:55:15 +0000

[...] Not me. [...]

By: Kevin Tomlinson

Kevin Tomlinson — Sun, 27 Jan 2008 16:03:38 +0000

Hey Jonathan,

Sorry your comment got caught up in spam. I agree with you about 2008 v. 2009.

I’m telling my clients that their condo is probably worth more now than it will be next year.

Jonathan,

How many units do you think are coming to market in the next 18 months. We have that number here (approx. 18,000), I’m wondering how it compares to NYC.

By: Jonathan Miller

Jonathan Miller — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 14:50:27 +0000

Interesting comparison, and cool blog Kevin.

Lots of inventory in the pipeline
– yes although permits are down 38% and the 421a abatements are expiring June 30 which is expected to stifle construction.
Attitude of buyers changing
- agree
Attitude of agents changing
- yes
Loss of liquidity in the mortgage markets
- yes
Recession
- yes – I believe we are in one
Heavy reliance on the foreign buyer
- yes and rate cuts are going to weaken the dollar further. At some point investors will shy if the perception of the economy is too dire.
Banks are laying off workers
- yes, bloated origination infrastructure. However, I suspect we will see a (mild) refinance boom this year with reset activity and some further decline in mortgage rates (no where near the fed funds decline.)

I am more worried about 2009 than 2008.

By: Erin

Erin — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 02:21:12 +0000

I totally agree – especially about calling the market what it is and not padding it for anyone. Rough times like these separate the real players from the amateurs.

By: caroline carrara

caroline carrara — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 17:06:21 +0000

Well said!

By: Kevin Tomlinson

Kevin Tomlinson — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 18:02:42 +0000

Rudy,
A compliment from Sellsius???? Wow!

Thanks!

By: rudy

rudy — Mon, 21 Jan 2008 14:09:54 +0000

hi kev!

your presentation and post layout is superb. yeah, inventory in manhattan is tight. it’s a sobering time for buyers, sellers and agents.

By: Kevin Tomlinson

Kevin Tomlinson — Sun, 20 Jan 2008 03:36:21 +0000

Yeah! I’ve read that book and Miami always seems to get in the way of it’s own success (overbuilding) and always has periods of expansion and contraction.

Thank you Joe!

By: Joseph Brown

Joseph Brown — Sun, 20 Jan 2008 03:23:33 +0000

“…and that South Beach was a WORLD-FAMOUS destination and the real estate market would NEVER have to endure so much as hiccup in South Beach…”

…[chuckle]…Well, at least she got HALF of it right. I hope you sent her a book on Miami Beach history for Christmas!

Great post, Kevin.